Analysis

I was asked by ABS-CBN's Mitch Lipa to be a guest on its Morning Show today. I will be, he said, with historian and media man Modi Sa-onoy to analyze the political situation. Analyze? I recall an old saw: Don't! If you analyze the diamond, the hardest and costliest of all gems, it's nothing but carbon formed for millions of years. So, why analyze a carbon? And regret the big amount you paid for it?

But 1904 Nobel Prize winner Ivan Pavlov wrote the world would have been better if people analyze why some people act the way they did.

My memorable experience in news analysis was the 1969 Congressional election between Bobby Montelibano and Buc-an Yulo for the second district. Both of them have been my friends since then until now.

God, that's 38 years ago.

ABS-CBN invited me to analyze the election results trickling in. I was then La Salle Commerce Dean, correspondent of the powerful The Manila Times, editor of the weekly Country Post and of Sugarland Magazine.

I was hesitant at first lest I would be made a tool to favor one candidate over the other with the management of news reporting to create a trend. I found none. I noted the samples were well spread and looked credible and the trend consistent.

So, after explaining the principles of samples and trending (I once taught Business Statistics) I was careful in saying, that, based on the trend, Roberto Montelibano had been getting more votes. I never said, winning but more votes. I knew how to use proper words.

Oh, the Yulo partisans were mad with me. Today, Buc-an who is a very close friend would just laugh at those days. When the final results came in, I was right. Montelibano got more votes.

***

I don't know what will be asked in this morning's program. No definite picture can be had at this time. Everything is fluid. A lot of things can still happen. Election is, starting today to May 14, more than a month away.

There will be constant shifting of opinions and support. The role of media will be crucial. Properly handled media can create some band wagon effect. Mishandled it can have disastrous results. There are many factors in an election. The person of the candidate himself, his personality, his preparedness, his program, and the issues. His money is important too.

On the issues, what are those against him and how does he handle them? Are they well defended? What are the issues raised against the opponent? Are they hitting home? Do they score? Are they effective?

***

I would like to make a disclaimer. I do not mean that if you don't have an engaging personality, or you are not a fluent or bombastic speaker, or you cannot sing, you cannot win. No! Many brilliant candidates who were charismatic, fluent, can dance, and sing, also lost.

I also want to point out that not all those who won have the biggest amount of money in the campaign. He just knew how to spend it.

Issues? Don't think that when there is no issue against a candidate, he will win. No! He even has more chances to lose, if he is totally ignored.

Some strategy is even to ignore the opponent. Attack others. The opponent? It's more effective ridiculing him. There are people good in ridiculing. The late Mayor Arsenio Lacson or Sen. Rodolfo Ganzon are the best examples.

That's why to independent candidates, attack so that you will also be attacked. Negative publicity is still publicity. If nobody attacks, get somebody to attack you where your answer can bring brownie points for you.

But, don't forget not to leave attacks unanswered. Adolf Hitler's Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebels had a theory, a lie repeated many times will be taken as truth.

***

Now, on political situation, I limit myself to Bacolod. The two, Puentevella and Leonardia camps have equal force. I call this the P and L camps, because both are the front liners in the fight while Renecito Novero and Joy Valdez are playing the supporting cast.

My view may be limited but, to me, media seems to be dominated by the L camp. But the P camp, though late, is making up. Media buying is important in terms of timing and choice of prime lots.

But in the grassroots, the P camp, particularly Monico, is well established. But he should not be complacent. Novero is fast catching up. And watch out for Andy Hagad. He can spring a surprise.

The question, who will peak on May 14?

***

In the mayoralty race, as an incumbent Bing has the edge. But Joy is fighting hard. She must reverse the "Tampering" issue. In 1988, Bing was comfortably ahead when Oscar Verdeflor came from behind to beat him. He learned his lessons.

No one should take Vic Ponteras and Joel Dojillo for granted. They are silent water. And like silent water they run deep.

So, with all independent candidates. If I gauge it on the trend, they have better chances now than in the previous years.

Overall, the forces are evenly arrayed. It is still nobody's game as support shifts back and forth.

Whatever will be the result, I believe in this election the winner will be the people's real choice given the open and massive discussion of issues. We are getting more mature.*

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