20 years hence

This is not exactly a biking story. But the discussion started as we were huffing and puffing our way to Valencia last week.

An American bike buddy started the conversation going by asking what I thought what would happen to the Philippines 20 years down the road, given the political crisis at that time (we were still under a State of Emergency then), the threat of overpopulation, and the mass poverty in the country.

He said, given those conditions, he thinks it doesn't look good for the Philippines. Adding to his gloomy forecast is the fact that he doesn't get to talk to anyone who gives him a positive image of the country. He's been in the Philippines teaching scuba diving for about two years now.

My answer must have surprised him, for I said things are looking up.

I explained that, as far as the population problem is concerned, the average size of the Filipino family has become smaller. Six is no longer the average number of children in a Filipino family. That was in the 1970s. In 1980, that number went down to five and in 1990, that number became four. If this trend continues, the projected number of children per family in 2030 will be below two (replacement rate is 2.1).

Definitely, with a smaller and more manageable population, our economic condition should improve. But then, even with the present population rate, we see a stronger currency. This indicates a stronger economy. A lot of money is coming into the Philippines, coming from relatives working abroad and the influx of outsourced jobs, mainly from the US.

And political instability? Well, I said, you cannot really expect our system to be at par with the United States or other first world countries which have over a hundred years of lead time over ours. In fact, I added, you should look at it this way. The Philippines is 108 years old. When the United States was 108 years old, surely, it wasn't as well-oiled as the system that is now in place. If I'm not wrong, this was the time the mafia was at its strongest.

In fact, I told him, I'm more worried about what will happen to the United States in the next 20 years. The US economy appears to be overheating over huge expenses especially because of the war in Iraq and the people are spending on SUVs as though oil will last forever.

My friend started thinking about what I had just said. "You know," he said, "that's the most positive outlook I've ever heard from a Filipino! I hope to read more about it in your newspaper!"*

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