GMA shows her mettle

The millgate price of "A" sugar dropped Thursday by as much as P140 per lkg. And there were a lot of speculation as to what caused the slide.

But according to Luis Tongoy, chairman of the Confederation of Sugar Producers' Association Inc. Negros-Panay Chapter, three developments may have contributed to the downslide.

These are: First, that the No. 14 settled below 22.50 cents per pound because the US Trade Representative allocated the third US sugar quota increase, of which the Philippines has 30,000 Mts, assuring adequate supply for the US market.

Second, is the strengthening of the Philippine peso against the dollar.

The third was that "A" prices, prior to last Thursday, were artificially high due to speculation that advance swapping of "A" to "B" would still be allowed. SRA issued Circular Letter No. 21, Series of 2005-2006, dated Feb. 23, 2006, pronouncing no Advance Swapping of "A" to "B" for crop year 2005-2006. That's the reason why "A" sugar settled at only around P1,020 from as high as P1,165 per Lkg the week before.

Well, I hope that sugar producers must have taken to heart this analysis by Tongoy. And the caveat - do you homework on sugar trading. A complex, but actually simple attention to development not only locally but also internationally.

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President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo yesterday lifted Proclamation 1017. A bold step. And surprising. I must admit that it surprised me. As it must have a lot of other people. GMA displayed admirable decisiveness. She literally put her neck on the wringer. Her three major security advisers actually had recommended it. They claimed to have defused the situation, actually even aborted the attempt by three groups of military men and police to unseat her in conjunction with the CCP-NPA.

The proclamation, however, also stirred a hornet's nest. Perhaps, one of its unexpected consequences was that even the moderates threw their support behind the anti-administration forces. Not because they wanted to unseat GMA, but because of fear of the aftermath when power seems to have shifted to the military and the police.

It seems that fear of martial law played more on the sentiments of people.

Thus, to a certain extent, GMA may have also sensed that she may have inadvertently unleashed a new political force into the body politic and she could, herself, become a victim of a military-PNP cabal. This could prove harder to dislodge later.

Thus, the quick turnaround. But it was a game she could risk. After all, the message had been absorbed by the concerned conspirators and their supporters. That the government would not hesitate to call upon its powers and resources to quell any determined attempts to overthrow the government. The opposition had fallen into disarray, the radicals under arrest and their more determined allies under investigation for involvement in the conspiracy to overthrow her.

Which only shows that the President has learned the art of calibrating her responses and to achieve a rearguard motion when deemed expeditious.

You have to give it to her. She is quick on the draw and could outthink her opponents. It must have surprised even the Americans how, despite their pointed announcement that the Filipinos will solve our own problems, were suddenly presented the unexpected turn of events. These must have quieted their apprehensions about the possibilities of Proclamation 1017 becoming the flashpoint of a major upheaval.

For the Press and the rest of media, it must have thrown all of them into taking stock of their position and how, if some of them, persist in their obsessive criticisms of government, they risk the book thrown at them.

Usually the threat works more effectively than the crackdown.

Frankly, PP 1017 may have been lifted. But a lot of people must be re-thinking and re-evaluating a shortlived but traumatic experience that will hang over our heads for a long time.

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The most important development in the world sugar market was the official announcement that EU members Thursday will cut their domestic quota for sugar, glucose and syrup production by 2.5 million metric tons or 13.6 percent in 2006-07.

The reforms, effectively July 1, including a 36 percent cut in the minimum sugar export price and a restructing fund to assist uncompetitive producers leaving the industry.

The regulation will take 4 million Mts of EU sugar from the world market.

Filipino sugar producers should pay heed to the implications of these developments. One thing sure, though - that sugar prices will remain high in the world market for a long time.*

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